Iranian officials have leaked orders from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei instructing security forces to use live fire against protesters without mercy, revealing deep regime divisions and contradicting official narratives blaming foreign terrorists for deaths. Reports indicate up to 30,000 killed in early January protests, far exceeding the regime’s claim of 3,117, amid forced identifications of victims as Basij members and a soldier’s execution for refusing orders
Internal Dissent and Crackdowns
Leaked Kill Orders and Casualty Discrepancies
- Officials briefed The New York Times and TIME on direct orders to kill protesters, undermining the regime’s information operation.
- Human rights groups report families coerced into labeling relatives as regime paramilitaries.
- US State Department condemned the execution of soldier Javid Khales for moral refusal to shoot civilians.
Internet Shutdown and Factional Debates
- Internet remains restricted despite IRGC promises, with factions fearing either renewed protests or economic collapse.
- NetBlocks confirmed only brief connectivity spikes.
Broader Regime Oppression Tactics
Post-War Surveillance Expansion
- Following June 2025 Israel conflict, Iran deployed Chinese AI CCTV and facial recognition for remote enforcement, like automatic hijab fines, reducing direct confrontations.
- Executions surged for intimidation, often with false spying accusations.
Protest Suppression and Foreign Influence Claims
- Mossad’s Farsi social media urged protests, claiming agent presence amid economic crises like rial collapse and fuel hikes.
- Reports of foreign arms to protesters, retweeted by Iran’s foreign minister.
Nuclear Program Rebuilding Efforts
Site Reconstructions Amid Strikes
- New activity at Parchin’s Taleghan 2 (former weapons site hit in 2024) nears completion with concrete hardening; similar work at Natanz and Pickaxe Mountain.
- US/Israel strikes in June 2025 destroyed much of program, but Iran assesses surviving assets like HEU stocks.
- Pentagon notes Iran’s determination to rebuild, not ruling out weapons pursuit.
Enrichment Advances and Deadlock
- Pre-strike expansions cut breakout time to weeks for 5-6 bombs; plans for more centrifuges at Fordow.
- IAEA oversight eroding; Iran debates NPT withdrawal but faces attack risks.
- Khamenei rejects Trump talks; sites near Natanz/Isfahan show potential enrichment intent.
